95387 comments

• Comment Link
  
  Michaelopisa

  Domingo, 15 Junio 2025 15:30

  There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
  [url=https://forum.allsochi.info/showthread.php?t=60647]гей порно геей[/url]
  A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.
  
  It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”
  
  Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.
  
  Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.
  
  The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.
  
  All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.
  
  For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.
  
  It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
  Why so many ghosts?
  No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.
  
  The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.
  
  The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.
  
  Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.
  
  The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.
• Comment Link
  
  RobertPiops

  Domingo, 15 Junio 2025 15:29

  Outsourcing of accounting services is the transfer of your accounting [url=https://www.riakchr.ru/kak-pravilno-uvolit-glavnogo-bukhgaltera-pri-utrate-doveriya/]https://www.riakchr.ru/kak-pravilno-uvolit-glavnogo-bukhgaltera-pri-utrate-doveriya/[/url]
• Comment Link
  
  SidneyMah

  Domingo, 15 Junio 2025 15:27

  http://demo.4admins.ru/viewtopic.php?t=4147
• Comment Link
  
  ousavawuzoixu

  Domingo, 15 Junio 2025 15:26

  Rediscover your vitality with our exclusive offer on [URL=https://seraamedia.org/product/levitra/]buy online levitra pills[/URL] . Acquire your health booster today!
  
  Discover effective joint pain relief with order chinese hydroxychloroquine , the top-rated solution for purchase online.
  
  Acquire your https://tooprettybrand.com/product/nexium/ treatment through the web, ensuring optimal discounts.
• Comment Link
  
  WilliamFleta

  Domingo, 15 Junio 2025 15:25

  Мы изготавливаем дипломы любой профессии по доступным тарифам. Дипломы производятся на настоящих бланках государственного образца Приобрести диплом любого университета [url=http://diplomh-40.ru/]diplomh-40.ru[/url]
• Comment Link
  
  etoyurawbipu

  Domingo, 15 Junio 2025 15:24

  Vacationing in Canada and realized you left your important eye drops behind? Worry not! You can purchase your essential [URL=https://tooprettybrand.com/product/cialis/]cialis deutschland[/URL] online.
  
  Interested in managing your health efficiently? Discover the best deetor buy to enhance your medical care affordably.
  
  Research suggests that for those seeking bacterial infection treatment, https://suddenimpactli.com/amoxil/ is a viable option. Consider purchasing this antibiotic online for a convenient and effective solution to your health concerns.
  
  Zillions search for effective hair loss solutions; [URL=https://monticelloptservices.com/sildalis/]buy sildalis without prescription[/URL] presents a hopeful choice.
• Comment Link
  
  acoyegem

  Domingo, 15 Junio 2025 15:23

  Jumpstart your journey to enhanced wellness with affordable, high-quality [URL=https://planbmfg.com/nizagara/]nizagara[/URL] . Find your path to better health via the internet today.
  
  For individuals seeking to manage their hair loss, nizagara cost offers an effective solution. Explore alternatives to purchase this crucial treatment easily online.
  
  Relieve your nasal symptoms quickly by buying medication from an exclusive https://seraamedia.org/product/ventolin/ . This method ensures effective relief for nasal congestion.
• Comment Link
  
  Lazrqcf

  Domingo, 15 Junio 2025 15:23

  Где заказать диплом специалиста?
  Приобрести диплом университета по невысокой стоимости можно, обратившись к проверенной специализированной компании.: [url=http://1magistr.ru/]1magistr.ru[/url]
• Comment Link
  
  eceldumakimiy

  Domingo, 15 Junio 2025 15:22

  Unlock the secret to improved stamina by opting for to [URL=https://cassandraplummer.com/product/generic-cialis-from-india/]how to get cialis canada[/URL] , your leading source for top-quality health solutions.
  
  If you're searching for an effective treatment to combat bacterial infections, consider canadian amoxil . This antibiotic has been widely acknowledged for its potency against a broad range of bacteria.
  
  Zero cost delivery options for https://sarahvuongbridaljewellery.com/product/amoxil/ are now available. Explore different avenues to acquire your medication effortlessly.
  
  When managing hypertension, it's essential to explore various therapies. Discover how you can oversee your condition effectively with [URL=https://heavenlyhappyhour.com/product/nizagara/]nizagara capsules for sale[/URL] .
• Comment Link
  
  uzalayabefza

  Domingo, 15 Junio 2025 15:21

  Questioning the safety and efficacy of inhaled medications? Ensure to ask a doctor before opting to acquire [URL=https://cassandraplummer.com/product/cytotec/]generic cytotec online[/URL] via the internet.
  
  Aiming for budget-friendly ulcerative colitis therapies? Explore sildenafil for options.
  
  Explore affordable options for https://seraamedia.org/levitra/ and conserve on your medication costs today.
  
  To obtain your antifungal remedy without any hassle, choose [URL=https://ipalc.org/nizagara/]nizagara praha[/URL] swiftly online.